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2011 Return Summary
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Cost Recovery Update 2011:
September 22, 2011:
Neets Bay: SSRAA’s cost recovery harvest of fall chum and coho in Neets Bay will end on Friday the 23rd. We will not fish after Friday the 23rd of September. The Lucky Buck will be processing the last of this harvest through the 25th if that is necessary. The fall chum run is strong and the daily male/female ratio yesterday (50/50) is what one would expect at the run’s midpoint. We have seen more than 3.5 million pounds between harvest and broodstock. These fish are smaller than usual this year. Mean weight of a fall chum at this time is usually about 7.3 pounds…this year it is about 6 pounds.
Numerous tags from fall coho returning to Neets have been seen in both troll and net harvest. The fish usually reach the terminal area at Neets in the first or second week of September. We had our first harvest of any magnitude of fall coho yesterday, the 21st. This is a late run of fish that seem even later than usual in 2011. Fall coho may also be smaller than usual, usual weight is near 10 pounds and what we have seen this year is slightly less than 9 pounds. SSRAA’s cost recovery harvest of fall coho in 2011 is negligible, very few fish returned soon enough to enter harvest prior to opening the bay for common property fisheries.
All of the required fall chum broodstock has been collected and at the end of the day today all of the required eggs will be in the hatchery.
Neets Bay will be open for common property rotational fisheries at noon on Saturday, 24 September (For details see the ADF& G announcement or “NB Fall Fishery” on SSRAA’s web page).
Whitman Chinook/Coho: We harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake. The required number of chinook eggs was collected and are in the hatchery. The first of the coho brood entered the adult raceway system last week. We have harvested a handful of excess males and are still collecting females to use for broodstock. When and if we are comfortable about broodstock, any remaining coho will be removed from the raceway and processed.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): The last of the summer coho have been harvested. Final cost recovery numbers will be just short of 50,000 fish.
September 17, 2011:
Neets Bay: Fall chum have been harvested for the past three weeks, harvest was consistent this past week at about 120,000 pounds a day. Our perspective last week that: “This run, at this date, is the largest fall chum run in our experience; in part because of survival and in part because an additional 10 million fall chum were released in 2007 that are returning now as 4’s.”, still holds. Despite this, it is always hard to have certainty about this stock going forward as we have sometimes seen this run stop abruptly despite all the normal measures that say it should continue (male/female proportion and the condition of fish). A fair harvest of these fish in Clarence Strait this past week suggests there are fall chum in the corridor. We are optimistic.
The fish are averaging only about 6 pounds now, down a half pound from last week. This is at least a pound and a half below what we would normally expect. About 155% of the forecast number of fish has already returned, but the anticipated poundage is significantly lessened by the small size of the fish.
About 51,000 fish have been put across the barrier as broodstock, despite the current low female percentage. Eggs were collected on four occasions; and, we need at the least one more significant egg-take. Unfortunately it looks like a good number of the brood put across before last week’s storms died behind the barrier because of extreme flow in Neets Creek. There is a storm forecast for this evening through Sunday, we will wait for the flow in the creek to subside on Monday or Tuesday next week to put another group of brood across the barrier. If all goes well, this will be the last group of fish required. We are still pointing at getting the eggs collected and last of the broodstock in the raceways by the weekend or 24 September.
Fall Coho: We have not seen any number of fall coho in Neets Bay. The fish are in the fishery, they are simply slower than usual getting home to the terminal area. The few fish we have seen have been close to the usual size of from 9.5 to 10 pounds. About 1,000 fish entered the raceway at Whitman Lake the past several days. These are the same stock as the Neets fish. Because of this we suspect the first schools of fall coho in Neets Bay this weekend or early next week.
Whitman Chinook/Coho: We have harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake. The required number of chinook eggs was collected and are in the hatchery. The first of the coho brood entered the adult raceway system late this week. When and if we are comfortable about broodstock, any remaining coho will be removed from the raceway and processed.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): The last of the summer coho have been harvested. Final cost recovery numbers will be just short of 50,000 fish.
September 9, 2011:
Neets Bay: Fall chum have been harvested for the past several weeks, sometimes in good numbers. This run, at this date, is the largest fall chum run in our experience; in part because of survival and in part because an additional 10 million fall chum were released in 2007 that are returning now as 4’s. Regardless, it is hard to say much about this stock going forward as we have sometimes seen this run stop abruptly despite all the normal measures that say it should continue (male/female proportion and the condition of fish).
The fish are averaging only about 6.5 pounds now. This is at least a pound and a half below what we would normally expect. About 105% of the terminal forecast number of fish has returned, but the anticipate poundage is lessened by fish size.
Recent fishing has been confused, as has fish behavior, by seriously stormy weather the past 5 or 6 days. Harvest dropped off during this period and the fish seemed scattered and shallow as opposed to the usual schooled behavior.
About 21,000 fish have been put across the barrier despite the low female percentage. The first egg take is going on today. We will put across another group of broodstock Saturday (tomorrow) and Sunday. Eggs will be collected as soon as these fish move to the raceways in appropriate numbers to provide a thermal tagging “lot” of eggs…(4 to 8 million). We are pointing at getting the eggs collected and last of the broodstock in the raceways by 25 September, or slightly before.
Though preseason we were skeptical, at the moment it appears our forecast for fall chum at Neets will be exceeded.
Fall Coho: At this date we have not seen many fall coho in the Neets Bay SHA, literally only 10 or so fish on several days. We anticipate seeing these fish enter the SHA, and cost recovery harvest, in the next week. Despite reports of very small coho, the few fish we have seen are close to normal size (10 pounds). At the same time, we have not seen enough of these fish to make a general statement about average size.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake, and set aside the broodstock requirement. The brood is in good condition and egg take has already started. There will be no further meaningful harvest of these fish this summer.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): The last of the summer coho have been harvested. Final cost recovery numbers will be just short of 50,000 fish.
September 2, 2011:
Neets Bay: Fall chum entered the terminal harvest about two weeks ago; both troll and cost recovery catches were a mix of summer and fall chum. Though harvest was slow for most of this period the falls quickly predominated. To date about 95,000 fall chum has been harvested in cost recovery. The troll fleet has harvested about 30,000 fish in this same period. Summer chum egg take is complete with about 140 million eggs collected. Though there are still a handful of very tired summer chum in the bay, the terminal summer chum return at Neets Bay is over.
The fall return started earlier than anticipated. We have also seen a number of these fish harvested in common property fisheries. We have harvested a good number of fall fish over the past 4 days. It looks as if this will be a decent return. It has been a number of years since we have been able to say that about fall chum at Neets Bay, perhaps since 2003.
Though the run is still only about 40% female, we will start collecting broodstock (50,000 fish required) within the next several days. Our intent is to get eggs in the hatchery earlier so that we can get them out as fry earlier in the spring – this is advantageous for survival. In addition, we have not seen any fall coho in the SHA as yet. When we wait to begin brood collection until the female portion of the run is high, the run is often mixed with a large number of fall coho. This is a difficult situation for all involved. The lesser of “evils” at this point is to put some excess males behind the barrier.
Though preseason we were skeptical, at the moment it appears our forecast for fall chum at Neets will be met or exceeded.
Fall Coho: At this date we have not seen any fall coho in the Neets Bay SHA. We anticipate seeing these fish enter the SHA, and cost recovery harvest, in the next 10 days to two weeks.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake, and set aside the broodstock requirement. The brood is in good condition and egg take has already started. There will be no further meaningful harvest of these fish this summer.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): We will be making the 12th harvest from the raceway this week. It appears there may be another clean up harvest next week. Final cost recovery numbers will be just short of 50,000 fish.
August 19, 2011:
Neets Bay: Terminal harvest of Neets Bay summer chum this past week was 32,000 for cost recovery and 4,500 to trollers since trolling reopened on the 15th. In addition an estimated 20 to 30 thousand fish got through the barrier seine during the extreme high water (storm) that occurred on 13/14 August. Those fish are being processed through the egg take station and treated as egg take carcasses. They are very tired fish in the same condition as broodstock after egg taking.
The terminal summer chum return at Neets Bay is over. There will be some stragglers for the next two weeks, but the next large group of fish we see, when we see them, will be fall chum. The fish were small this year. The eventual overall average weight for the run will be a little over 8 pounds. The female portion of the run will be close to 54%, which is usual for a run that is predominantly 4-year-old fish. Age class breakdown won’t be precisely determined until all the otoliths have been read, but we can say that this run was strongly comprised of 4’s and that there were a decent number of 3’s. Of the year classes, the 5’s were probably the group that had the poorest performance.
At this point we know little about the fall chum return except that we have already seen some fall chum in common property harvest, including in the corridors to Neets Bay. A reminder, even with good survival , this return is not nearly as large as the summer chum return. The falls that have been caught in common property also appear to be smaller than usual. We have not seen these fish in Neets Bay yet.
Fall chum usually arrive in decent numbers on about the 5th of September, plus or minus a few days. In years of decent returns, and we have not had one of those since 2003, the falls were in our harvest in the last week of August. The fall coho return to the terminal area at Neets is not consistent. We have seen the fish in good numbers as early as 15 August and as late as mid September. To date we have not seen any fall coho in the Neets Bay SHA.
SSRAA’s terminal forecast for fall chum and coho, was for a harvest of approximately 2 million pounds in the Neets Bay SHA – primarily in September.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake, and set aside the broodstock requirement. The brood is in good condition and egg take has already started. There will be no further meaningful harvest of these fish this summer.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): We will be making the 12th harvest from the raceway this week. It appears there may be another clean up harvest next week. Final cost recovery numbers will be between 46 and 50,000 fish.
August 12 2011:
Neets Bay: Terminal harvest of Neets Bay summer chum this past week was 193,926 for cost recovery and 11,409 to trollers prior to the troll closure on the 10th.
The summer chum return continues, but it is on its last legs. We are primarily cleaning up very tired fish at the barrier seine. When all the numbers come together, the return will be larger than anticipated – perhaps by as much as 25 to 30% - maybe more. This was not unexpected after watching Kendrick and Nakat returns significantly exceed what was forecast. Trollers caught more fish than anticipated, the current estimate is 368,000. Cost recovery was also a little better than we anticipated from the summers. We have harvested about 6.2 million pounds and we anticipated about 5.5 million at this point. Average summer chum weight will be near 8 pounds and we used the historic average of 9.6 pounds to forecast the return. The fish numbers exceeded the forecast enough to more than compensate for the smaller size. Our total cost recovery forecast for 2011 estimates about 2 million pounds will be harvested from fall chum. Unlike the other SE enhancement organizations, SSRAA’s cost recovery continues through most of September…and that return will be important to reaching the preseason estimate. At this point we know little about the fall chum return except that we have already seen some fall chum in common property harvest. This can only be interpreted as a good sign that the fish are coming, but as always, you can’t count on them until they are in the hold.
This year’s harvest poundage would have resulted in significant red ink on budget documents several years ago…where now – with the current value of chum products including pale-meated fish, unless something dramatically negative occurs we will generate sufficient revenue.
To date the trollers have harvested about 368,000 fish (3,187,800 pounds) while we anticipated 200,000 fish. Cost recovery harvest has been good again this past week, about a week longer than last summer’s return, and we have slightly more poundage than we contemplated (6,258,145 pounds). We put about 160,000 fish (1,345,000 pounds), all that is required, across the net for brood. About 122,000,000 eggs have been collected through yesterday with a goal of 135,000,000. We should culminate egg taking this weekend.
There are still 13 trollers fishing the mouth of Neets Bay at the troll closure. There are some chums concentrated at the barrier. These are very tired fish. We hope to have them cleaned up and processed within several days. There is always a scratch fishery between the end of the summer return and the beginning of the fall chum return…late summers and early falls. That will begin as the fish at the barrier are gone.
Tall chum usually arrive in decent numbers on about the 5th of September, plus or minus a few days. In years of decent returns, and we have not had one of those since 2003, the falls were in our harvest in the last week of August. The fall coho return to the terminal area at Neets is not consistent. We have seen the fish in good numbers as early as 15 August and as late as mid September. A coho has more flexibility about when it returns to spawn than an intertidal spawner like pinks and chums…and these are usually late-run fish.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 8,600 chinook at Whitman Lake, and set aside the broodstock requirement. The brood is in good condition and egg take has already started.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): We will be making the 12th harvest from the raceway next week. This will probably be the last full harvest (4200 fish) as the run is quickly winding down. More than 40,000 fish have been taken from the raceway at Neck Lake for cost recovery purposes.
August 6, 2011:
Neets Bay: Terminal harvest of Neets Bay summer chum this past week was 60,500 fish to broodstock, 173,170 fish to cost recovery and 19,000 fish to the troll fleet.
We have been frequently asked if the larger than anticipated troll catch has hurt SSRAA’s ability to cost recover part of the Neets return and meet our current revenue needs. The short answer is that we will be OK. The larger than anticipated return provided additional fish for both troll and cost recovery harvest in addition to meeting broodstock requirements that increased in 2011 because of increased releases in 2012 at both Kendrick and Neets Bay. The current value of chum salmon helps SSRAA as well as the fishermen. This year’s harvest poundage would have resulted in significant red ink on budget documents several years ago…where now, unless something dramatically negative occurs we will generate sufficient revenue.
The total return by weight (cost recovery, chum troll, net rotations, and broodstock) to Neets Bay has been above forecast through this date. We anticipated the overall average weight of a summer chum at Neets Bay would be 9.6 pounds. Currently the average weight of the most recent daily harvest has been about 7.5 pounds with an overall run average of 8.35 to date. The final average will likely be about 8.2 pounds, approximately 15% less than the assumed weight of a fish before harvest began. While the forecast in fish is important, the forecast weight of the return is what relates to revenue. In essence, if the forecast in fish was perfect, because of the small fish the revenue from harvest would be 15% less than anticipated. The actual case is that the number of fish back to terminal Neets Bay fisheries is going to exceed the forecast more than the 15% deficit in average weight impacts the outcome.
To date the trollers have harvested about 352,000 fish (3,070,000 pounds) while we anticipated 200,000 fish. Cost recovery harvest has been good again this past week and we are about where we contemplated at this date (4,835,000 pounds). We have put about 160,000 fish (1,345,000 pounds), all that is required, across the net for brood.
There are still about 20 trollers fishing the mouth of Neets Bay and there is still a decent abundance of fish in the innermost part of the bay by the barrier seine. We will have several more days of strong harvest and then scratch our way between runs, catching the summer chum stragglers, until the first of September when fall chum enter Neets Bay. The fall chum run is much smaller than the summer chum return. These fish will be harvested for broodstock and cost recovery through the month of September.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 20 times from the raceway at Whitman Lake, more than 8,000 chinook, and set aside the broodstock requirement. There may be a few fish left, but for practical purposes this run is over (We have said this for two weeks, but a few stragglers are still entering the raceway at Whitman Lake).
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): We will be making the 11th harvest from the raceway early next week. This will probably be the last full harvest (4200 fish) as the run is quickly winding down. There will likely be at least one more clean up harvest in the next week or 10 days. More than 40,000 fish have been taken from the raceway at Neck Lake for cost recovery purposes.
July 30, 2011:
Neets Bay: The total return by weight (cost recovery, chum troll, net rotations, and broodstock) to Neets Bay is still slightly above forecast for this date. The fish are smaller than we anticipated so we are further ahead of the terminal run forecast in numbers of fish than in weight, but in the end the weight of the return is the single important factor.
The trollers have harvested about 330,000 fish (2,950,000 pounds) through yesterday while we anticipated 200,000. Cost recovery harvest has been good again this past week and we are about where we contemplated at this date (3,460,000 pounds). We have put almost 100,000 fish (810,000 pounds) across the net for brood.
There is still a decent abundance of fish in the inner bay. Some of this will be required for broodstock, but harvest should be decent for the coming week as we get into the smaller fish, predominantly female, that comprise the later part of the return.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 18 times from the raceway at Whitman Lake, about 7,000 chinook, and set aside the broodstock requirement. There may be a few fish left, but for practical purposes this run is over.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): Fish have steadily entered the Neck Lake raceway over the past week or 10 days. We will be making our 9th and 10th harvests from the raceway this weekend and Monday/Tuesday. There are still a number of fish in the system. It’s possible these harvests will go on another 10 days to two weeks. Through next Tuesday we will have harvested about 36,000 fish. While harvest lags last year, we are well ahead of what we would consider average at this date.
July 23, 2011:
Neets Bay: The total return (cost recovery, chum troll, net rotations, and broodstock) to Neets Bay is now slightly above forecast for this date. This may be slightly misleading as the troll harvest takes place earlier than we would normally see the same fish and trollers have harvested about 270,000 fish through yesterday while we anticipated 200,000. Cost recovery harvest has been good this past week and we have started putting fish across the barrier seine for broodstock. The run has just reached 49% female. To this point the run is heavily comprised of 4-year-old fish. The female portion of a run comprised of only 4’s is about 55%...we are likely still short of the midpoint of cost recovery harvest and broodstock collection. The fish are smaller than average size with mean daily weight at about 8.5 to 9 pounds today. Through Friday, 22 July, the total harvest in Neets is about 2,500,000 pounds of chum and 100,000 pounds of chinook. Our forecast for cost recovery is between 6 and 7 million pounds of chum (summer plus fall). Fall chum are a much smaller part of the return.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 14 times from the raceway at Whitman Lake, about 6,500 chinook, and set aside the broodstock requirement. This run is almost over with perhaps one or two raceway clean up harvests left.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): With the rain early this past week the next pulse of summer coho moved from Whale Pass into Neck Creek. On Monday and Tuesday (July 25 and 26) we will do the 7th harvest from the raceway on Neck Creek. The total harvest after Tuesday will be about 25,000 fish. The harvest in 2011 is running ahead of what we would consider the average situation, but behind last year. The run to the raceway on Neck Creek ended several weeks earlier than usual in 2010, so it is possible we will see the same numbers this year. Harvest of these fish generally continues into mid August.
July 18, 2011:
Neets Bay: The total return (cost recovery, chum troll, net rotations, and broodstock) to Neets Bay is still on forecast. Cost recovery fishing picked up Friday (7/15). The fish are smaller than average size with mean daily weight at about 9 pounds today. The female ratio is still low at 43% suggesting we are well short of the peak. Consensus here, all harvest considered, is that the run is a little later than last year. Through Sunday, 17 July, the total harvest in Neets is about 1,450,000 pounds of chum and 95,000 pounds of chinook.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested 12 times from the raceway at Whitman Lake and set aside most of the broodstock requirement. Harvesting will go on for several more weeks depending on the eventual strength of this return.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): The fifth harvest of summer coho from the raceway at Neck Lake will begin Wed. After Wednesday we will have taken about 19,000 Snow Pass Coho from the raceway, approximately half of what we anticipate. Harvest of these fish generally continues into mid August.
July 11, 2011:
Neets Bay: The total return (cost recovery, chum troll, net rotations, and broodstock) to Neets Bay is on forecast. Cost recovery fishing is still slow but should pick up this week as more fish enter the Special Harvest Area. Through Sunday, 10 July, the total harvest in Neets is about 520,000 pounds of chum and 80,000 pounds of chinook.
Whitman Chinook: We have harvested six times from the raceway at Whitman Lake and set aside part of the broodstock requirement. Harvesting will go on for several weeks depending on the eventual strength of this return.
Neck Lake Summer Coho (Snow Pass): The third harvest of summer coho from the raceway at Neck Lake began today. After this harvest we will have removed about 12,000 fish from the raceway. Fish will continue to enter the raceway through mid August. Future harvests will depend on the eventual size of the return – at this point it looks strong.
July 5, 2011:
Neets Bay: Tuesday after the 4th of July. The additional net rotation in Neets Bay, through the 28th, slowed our start as there was little or no “clean up” fishery for chinook and we fished fairly passively, not competing with common property gear, through those openings. Yesterday we had our first moderate harvest of chums, an estimated 40,000 pounds. Historically we have had the first 50,000 pound set somewhere between the 4th and the 9th of July. There are reliable reports of chums heading toward Neets through the south end, D101 and Metlakatla. They are on time…normal timing, and should be showing up in Neets Bay within the next several days.
Whitman and Neck Lake: We have harvested four times from the raceway at Whitman Lake. About 800 fish kings came into the raceway over the weekend. Those are being harvested this morning. While the numbers at Whitman are not as large as last year, the total return may be the same as a greater percentage of the return was harvested in common property this summer.
The first harvest of summer coho from the raceway at Neck Lake is happening as I type. We will remove about 4,000 fish from the raceway. As in previous years, the fish are transported to Ketchikan and custom processed at E.C. Phillips and transported to Seattle fresh. Good common property harvest as well as the strong movement of fish to the raceway are evidence of a strong summer coho return in 2011.
June 24, 2011
Neets Bay: its 9:30am, Friday, June 24 – we’ll fly out to Neets this afternoon; and, at 5am tomorrow morning the first cup of “harvest” coffee on the Seven Seas. We’ll share a few stories about the off season and a mix of optimism and anxiety about the coming season – maybe even stretch a few truths in some of the telling. There should be nets in the water by 7 or 8am barring last minute repairs; cost recovery in Neets Bay. Two contract seiners (“Tesha” and “Favorite”) and two tenders (“Seven Seas” and “Lynda”) will fish the outer portion of the THA, concentrating on finding chum that may be entering the bay. We will not focus on king salmon, by fishing the innermost portion of the bay, until after the final common property rotational fishery ends at noon on Tuesday the 28th.
The “Lucky Buck” is in place, newly refinished in the Ketchikan shipyard and fully crewed. We do not anticipate significant harvest of chum salmon until on or after the 4th of July. Even during the largest returns at Neets, the first good chum sets don’t often occur in the bay itself until after the 4th.
Whitman and Neck Lake: We have harvested two small lots of chinook from the raceway at Whitman Lake. Though common property harvest information suggests a good run, the fish are not entering the raceway at Whitman as quickly as they did in 2010. This also appears to be the case with summer coho at Neck Lake, where the run was ten days to two weeks earlier than usual in 2010. It seems run timing will be more “usual” for these two stocks this summer. Our first harvest at Neck Lake will occur in the next several days.
While we are frequently asked to speculate, it is far too early to say anything intelligent about this year’s chum or summer coho returns to SSRAA’s terminal areas. We can say that the king return is good and that the common property harvest rate of kings may be a little better than usual.
