It is SSRAA’s intention that the troll fleet harvests 200,000 summer chum from Neets Bay and the immediate area outside of Neets Bay.

There are two important considerations related to this fishery in 2010:

1.     SSRAA’s Neets Bay cost recovery revenue forecast is large enough to allow this harvest, but with very little margin for error.  For a number of years we have over-forecast the Neets Bay terminal return.  Last season the number of fish forecast was relatively close, about 10% greater than the actual return.  But, the actual average weight of the fish was 20% less than anticipated.  Because of this the 2009 return was only 70% of the anticipated poundage, and revenue forecasting is based on the poundage harvested.  Our 2010 revenue forecast does not allow for a 30% error and a 200,000 chum troll harvest.  

2.     We understand that there will be a troll fishery whether we open the Neets Bay THA or not.  In 2009 trollers were effective harvesting chum salmon outside the THA. Trollers can harvest significant numbers of summer chum immediately outside the THA, probably in all circumstances; but there are some circumstances that favor this fishery more than others. 

Since SSRAA must closely manage the troll harvest in 2010, and at the same time we can’t totally control harvest since we cannot stop the fishery outside the THA.  Because of this the fishery will be managed conservatively in 2010…in a sense, backward from what was done in 2009.  In order to have a successful fishery in 2009, it was important to get commitments from both the troll fleet and for tendering from at least one processor.  Would each group show up?  It was a catch-22 of sorts as the troll fleet was reluctant to commit without the processor and the processor was reluctant to commit tenders without the troll fleet commitment.  SSRAA’s commitment was to make certain the harvest goal could be reached if that was at all possible.  So, to make the situation a best case for both trollers and processors, we opened the entire THA to the old boundary near the barrier and we asked our seiners to stay inside of the trollers whenever possible.

Now that we know the fish can be caught outside the THA, and necessarily looking at a conservative approach; we will let the fishery outside the THA begin of its own accord. That may happen as early as July 1, but more likely toward the end of the July Chinook fishery.  We will watch harvest closely, and if the troll harvest is not going well somewhere between approximately 10 and 12 July, we will consider opening the THA inward to the Bug Island Line.  We will continue monitoring the fishery on a daily basis, and if there is a substantial abundance of chum and yet they are not being harvested in the open area of the THA, we will consider moving the line inward to the narrowest part of the bay, we call that point “Sims Line”, an adjustment we made some years back to give trollers a decent “drag” in the bay.  If there are a lot of fish coming back to Neets Bay they can be harvested by trollers in this area.

After last summer’s experience we are reluctant to open the bay inside this line.  Trollers can be very effective in Fire Cove and closer to the barrier, but when they fish this area they even more effectively clean up the fish that are there and break up the schools of those they don’t harvest.  Our seiners are not effective in this circumstance and fish don’t approach the barrier in good numbers so that we can collect broodstock and pass those fish over the barrier.  This significantly disrupts our ability to judge the strength of the return and adequately collect broodstock at the appropriate time.

The short version: 

1.     Let the fishery begin of its own accord outside the THA.  Daily monitor participation and harvest.

2.     Consider moving the line inward to Bug Island on about the 10^th or 12^th of July dependent on the abundance of summer chum and troller effectiveness outside the THA.

3.     Consider moving the line in to the “Sims Line” on or about 15 July if trollers have not been effective fishing outside Bug Island and the abundance of

chum salmon still suggests harvest should have been greater.

4.     Close the THA at about 180,000 harvested summer chum anticipating that some trollers will remain in Behm Canal to catch another 20,000 fish plus or minus.  We could decide to close it at a lower number if the fleet was effective outside the THA.  We would do our best to match harvest rate and participation to sum harvest to 200,000 fish before 1 August plus or minus depending on the run dynamic.

There is one more stipulation in 2010.  If at any point we judge that the return is only 50% or less of the projection (in pounds) the THA will be immediately closed to common property harvest.